New Regime Stuff
"Pessimists sound smart. Optimists make money." - Patrick Collison, founder of Stripe
This week felt different, not dramatic, not emotional, just structurally different.
The tape is rewarding certain behavior and punishing others, and the separation is getting clearer by the day. This isn’t about chasing headlines. It’s about recognizing where capital is moving.
· Resources & Infrastructure: Metals, industrial-linked names, and energy-adjacent trades continue to show persistent demand.
· Leadership in miners is being challenged: Leadership is rotating. What worked before isn’t leading right now.
· Tech Isn’t One Trade: Parts of tech are holding up fine. Others are rolling over-sub selection matters.
· Silver: The market is clearly focused on the battle. That level is acting as a psychological and technical magnet.
· Bitcoin / Crypto: Bitcoin continues to act well and is being treated as a serious allocation. That behavior is starting to influence broader risk appetite.
· Volatility: Nothing looks broken, but pressure is building. When volatility wakes up, positioning, not opinions, will decide outcomes.
· Rates & Dollar No Longer Helping: The macro tailwinds have faded. Stocks now need real buying to move higher, which is changing the character of the tape.
VIEW MATRIX
The Navigator has always been about what’s next.
New BIDS are added in the View Matrix
You don’t think I’m going to let 75BPS of directional percentage points in a quarter get away when our last annual high water mark (Volume IX) was 255 percentage points, do you?
It’s hard work turning water into wine.
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WHY THIS MATTERS
· Access You Don’t Get Anywhere Else – Off-the-record macro discussions, real-time market debate, and insight you won’t hear on YouTube, podcasts, or social media.
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