Rock of Ages
“Have a Happy Easter weekend, Good People.” - TG Macro
The market is absorbing everything, and that’s the problem.
Oil is elevated, the Strait remains unresolved, headlines keep escalating, and equities still grind higher. Bad news hits, and instead of selling, the market shrugs it off.
That’s not resilience.
That’s positioning under pressure.
· Equities Showing Relentless Selling: Despite elevated oil and constant war headlines, stocks continue to find buyers. Shorts are getting squeezed, and dips are still being bought.
· Short-Covering Driving the Tape: The recent upside move has been driven more by positioning than conviction. Forced buying is lifting the market, not clean leadership.
· Oil Holding the War Premium: Crude remains elevated even after intraday pullbacks. With the Strait unresolved, the market is not pricing normalization; it’s pricing disruption.
· Energy Still Leading: Energy names continue to dominate relative performance. Even pullbacks are being treated as opportunities, not trend changes.
· Gold Reasserting Its Role: Precious metals remain in a strong uptrend and continue to outperform most assets.
· Rates Starting to Push Back Up: After a sharp bond rally, yields are ticking higher again. The rate story isn’t over its resetting.
· Dollar Firm on Uncertainty: The USD continues to catch a bid as global tension and inflation risks persist, keeping pressure on global liquidity.
· Macro Data Not Cracking: Labor and consumption data remain firm. The economy isn’t rolling over, which complicates the inflation and policy outlook.
Month End VIEW MATRIX
This is not a market you navigate with opinions.
When positioning is driving price, correlations are unstable, and macro headlines dictate the tape, the edge comes from execution, discipline, and preparation.
If you want to understand how this environment is being navigated in real time, how risk is managed, how trades are structured, and where the next opportunities are forming, that’s exactly what we’ll be covering.