Waterfall SZN
TG Macro is in full waterfall trading mode, watching for the S&P 500 to hit its 200-day moving average before stepping in. With Trump’s tariff headlines rattling markets, volatility is back, but fear in the bond market is absent—a key signal that this pullback is tradeable.
Market Dynamics:
· S&P 500: Down 5% in 10 days, approaching key support. If it holds, it’s a setup.
· Bitcoin: Slid into a new range, breaking its prior structure. More downside likely as risk assets unwind.
· Volatility & Sentiment: The VIX hit mid-20s, with a possible spike marking capitulation. AAII Bear Index surged, and traders are panic selling into support.
· How TG is Speculating It:
📌 Waiting for the S&P to hit key support.
📌 Watching for a VIX spike and extreme TICK Index readings.
📌 Bitcoin downside isn’t over yet.
Markets are on edge, but this isn’t a crash. TG is locked in, watching for the moment to strike. Will the S&P hold the line, or are we in for a deeper drop?
Thanks Tony, enjoyed your conversation with Maggie Lake and the super Flute quite a bit.
I am holding on to natty, any thoughts?
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