Wounded

“The secret to success is constancy of purpose.” – Benjamin Disraeli

The most dangerous animal in the jungle is a wounded animal.

The second most dangerous animal is a trader who just gave back six months of profits.

Three months ago, the world was pricing $200 oil, runaway inflation, and a permanent Strait premium. Today, oil can’t catch a bid, bonds are bottoming, and everyone who chased the inflation trade is limping back to the sidelines.

Price changed.
And when price changes, the narrative follows.
The question now isn’t whether the Iran War mattered.
The question is whether the market has already moved on.

• Precious Metals Setting Up Quietly: While sentiment has collapsed, the long-term bull case remains intact.

• Gold Positioning wiped out: Open interest is down to levels not seen since gold was a $2000/oz item.

• The Iran Trade Is Unwinding: The war premium that dominated markets for months continues evaporating as traders aggressively price in normalization.

• Oil Breaking Down: Crude has carved out a series of lower highs, lost key moving averages, and is threatening a move toward much lower support levels.

• Bonds Finding Their Footing: Lower oil prices are removing inflation pressure and helping Treasury bonds build what increasingly looks like an important bottom.

• Lower Rates Helping Equities: A stabilizing bond market is creating a friendlier backdrop for risk assets and growth stocks.

• The Dollar Nearing Resistance: A stronger bond market and easing inflation fears could finally take some pressure off the greenback.

• Stocks Weathering the Pullback: Despite the recent weakness, the broader market has only experienced a relatively modest correction from the highs.

• SpaceX Mania Taking Center Stage: Capital continues flooding into the biggest IPO story on the planet as investors chase the next narrative trade.

• Capital Raising Is Accelerating: Companies are rushing to issue stock into one of the most enthusiastic markets in years.

View Matrix

We’re down to fighting weight with our head on a swivel.

Oil is breaking down. Bonds are bottoming. The inflation panic is fading.

_____________ sentiment has been crushed, positioning has been washed out, and nobody wants to talk about it anymore.

We’re looking to increase our ________ exposure and selectively add to resource positions on weakness.

UPSIZE your _________ and thank me later.