I'm with Tony on the dollar direction but probably for a different reason - maybe it just looks different from here (Europe). Yes, it's political, it's reactive and it's very basic: trust in America has hit the skids and everyone is very wary now of doing business with America. Every market hates uncertainty, which Trump has created. That is very difficult to turn round and will take a very long time.
(1) Never underestimate Americans propensity to exert or endure maximum pain; brinkmanship is in their DNA.
(2) "The greatness of America lies not in being more enlightened than any other nation, but rather in her ability to repair her faults." -- Alexis de Tocqueville, 1835... long term, I will never short USA. Americans are used to tearing down whole systems and starting over again. Their society is self-correcting -- over time -- and we are seeing the world order adjust itself in real time. This is why they are different than Europe or other country that continues to hold its colonial ties [i.e. UK, Canada]
(3) The combined team of Trump and Musk are the ultimate "Feedback Implementation" duo. Action is better than planning, especially when dealing with complex systems and their 1st, 2nd and 3rd order effects. Make a big move, double down on the move [see above brinkmanship], and wait to see what happens. Later after the OODA loop has cycled, adjust/tweak/reverse -- and go again.
Jared, I hear your take on investing in Europe, not sure there is either a macro nor valuation case to be made. The somewhat perturbed picture in the USA is a walk in the park by comparison of the situation in Europe. In my book that is.
Appreciate your insights. Always. Tony, I have to pick a bone with you on your analysis of the treasury sell-off. There's been no reliable evidence that China was a significant force behind it. Additionally, Andy Constan commented last week he thought that story was a canard based on his research. What's more, there've been reports that large private Japanese positions had to unwind. And then there's talk about the basis trade unwind being a factor.
TG, you're on fire. Perfect summary of the market situation/opportunity in clear form for us to digest easily.
Interested to hear your thoughts on IAK/KIE insurance sector if it pops on your radar next time at some point.
'body takes a screenshot' lol
I'm with Tony on the dollar direction but probably for a different reason - maybe it just looks different from here (Europe). Yes, it's political, it's reactive and it's very basic: trust in America has hit the skids and everyone is very wary now of doing business with America. Every market hates uncertainty, which Trump has created. That is very difficult to turn round and will take a very long time.
My three takeaways about treasury selling:
(1) Never underestimate Americans propensity to exert or endure maximum pain; brinkmanship is in their DNA.
(2) "The greatness of America lies not in being more enlightened than any other nation, but rather in her ability to repair her faults." -- Alexis de Tocqueville, 1835... long term, I will never short USA. Americans are used to tearing down whole systems and starting over again. Their society is self-correcting -- over time -- and we are seeing the world order adjust itself in real time. This is why they are different than Europe or other country that continues to hold its colonial ties [i.e. UK, Canada]
(3) The combined team of Trump and Musk are the ultimate "Feedback Implementation" duo. Action is better than planning, especially when dealing with complex systems and their 1st, 2nd and 3rd order effects. Make a big move, double down on the move [see above brinkmanship], and wait to see what happens. Later after the OODA loop has cycled, adjust/tweak/reverse -- and go again.
#42 Ronnie Lott He hit like a 20% tariff into a falling market
Jared, I hear your take on investing in Europe, not sure there is either a macro nor valuation case to be made. The somewhat perturbed picture in the USA is a walk in the park by comparison of the situation in Europe. In my book that is.
Appreciate your insights. Always. Tony, I have to pick a bone with you on your analysis of the treasury sell-off. There's been no reliable evidence that China was a significant force behind it. Additionally, Andy Constan commented last week he thought that story was a canard based on his research. What's more, there've been reports that large private Japanese positions had to unwind. And then there's talk about the basis trade unwind being a factor.
Sportsmen are one thing, but we all know that 42 is the meaning of life ;-) (know why?)
It's not the answer but the question that matters.
Eh?
Do not you think dollar shortage cause the dollar lower vs yen and euro?